Russia’s Withdrawal from Ukraine Grain Deal Threatens to Escalate Food Security Crisis in Africa

On July 17, Russia withdrew from the Black Sea Grain Initiative that ensured the safe export of Ukrainian grain, sparking fears over global food supplies.

I am deeply concerned about the impact the suspension of the deal will have, particularly on people facing food insecurity in Africa.

Over more than 35 years, the Sasakawa Africa Association (SAA) has been striving to improve the livelihoods of millions of smallholder farmers across the African continent with the support of The Nippon Foundation.

As a core donor, the foundation has provided over US$300 million in support of its programs－an unprecedented figure from a donor to an NGO on a continuous basis, according to SAA’s 2020 annual report.

We have been working with African smallholder farmers to improve their food, nutrition and income security by catalyzing technological innovation in agriculture and to attain market-oriented agriculture for ensuring farming as a business.

The Black Sea initiative, brokered by Turkey and the United Nations in July 2022, allowed Ukraine to ship about 32.9 million metric tons of grain from three Black Sea ports to 45 countries across the three continents of Asia, Africa and Europe, according to U.N. data.

The deal had been credited with lowering essential food prices and boosting the vital export of lifesaving foodstuffs to countries in danger of famine. With it came a separate agreement to facilitate shipments of Russian food and fertilizer.

Russia and Ukraine are two of the world’s largest agricultural producers. The majority of grain exported by Ukraine under the deal was corn and wheat, accounting for 16.9 million tons and 8.91 million tons, respectively.

Ukraine is often referred to as the breadbasket of Europe, with more than 55 percent of its land being arable. According to the European Commission, Ukraine accounts for 10% of the world wheat market, 15% of the corn market and 13% of the barley market.

Hardest hit by the collapse of the Black Sea deal were vulnerable countries in the Sub-Saharan African region. Their income levels are low and the percentage spent on food stands at 42%, compared with 6% in the United States and 13% in France.

According to the World Food Programme (WFP), pre-war Ukraine produced enough food to feed 400 million people per year. In 2021, almost two-thirds of the UN food agency’s overall grain procurement came from Ukraine.

The UN says the deal allowed the WFP to transport more than 725,000 tons of wheat to help people in need in countries hit by conflicts and extreme weather events.

Ethiopia received more than a third of that (262,759 tons), with more than 20% going to Yemen (151,000) and 18% to Afghanistan. (130,869). Other African nations that received Ukrainian wheat included Sudan (30,000 tons), Kenya (25,000 tons), Somalia (25,000 tons) and Djibouti (541 tons).

In 2022, in monetary terms, Ukraine provided the third-highest amount of the total food procured for the WFP and the most metric tons, at 643,189.

Ms. Nana Ndeda, humanitarian policy and advocacy lead at Save the Children, said the deal had enabled the stabilization of global markets and the lowering of food prices in many parts of the world.

“What is likely to happen now is that those food prices will go up again. With that, countries will no longer be able to supply food to children and their families will no longer be able to access food and we’ll see an increase in malnutrition and food insecurity.”

Equally serious is the issue of access to fertilizers necessary for food production.

According to the Policy Research Institute of the Japanese Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Ministry, Russia is the world’s largest exporter of nitrogenous fertilizer, second biggest supplier of potash fertilizer and No. 3 seller of phosphorus fertilizer. Its ally Belarus is also a large potash producer, exporting the bulk of it through Russia. Overall, Russia is said to account for about 25% of the world’s total fertilizer supply.

Declining supplies of chemical fertilizers would drive up their prices and could lead to lower food production and thus increased demand for imported food.

SAA Chair Dr. Amit Roy warns that Africa’s food imports, which now aggregate approximately $40 billion, would balloon to $100 billion in several years.