G20 Plastic Consumption Seen Soaring 1.7-Fold by 2050 If No New Steps Are Taken: Experts

Plastic consumption in the world’s 20 largest economies in 2050 is on the track to surge 1.73-fold over 2019 levels unless the United Nations agrees on a sweeping set of new global policies to reduce it.

The warnings came from experts of Back to Blue, an initiative of The Nippon Foundation and Economist Impact, a thinktank run by London-based multinational media company The Economist Group. The study was supported by prominent authorities on plastic production, consumption and pollution, including the OECD, World Bank and WWF.

The report, Peak Plastics: Bending the consumption curve, also reveals that on our current trajectory, countries will not reach peak plastic consumption－the tipping point after which plastic consumption begins to decline－this century.

At the UN Environment Assembly in Nairobi in March 2022, 175 member states endorsed a resolution to end plastic pollution and forge an international legally binding agreement by 2024.

The Back to Blue report is the first study to forensically model the potential impact of policies being considered by UN plastic treaty negotiators. The study explores three policy approaches that are being considered by them.

The key actions under negotiation, covering the entire life cycle of plastic from production to disposal, are: a ban on problematic single-use plastic (SUP) products; "polluter pays" Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) schemes for full end-of-life costs; and a substantial tax on production of “virgin” plastic, the raw material for making plastics.

But even with these policies, the report said, there is a “considerable possibility” that the treaty will be insufficient to halt the rise in plastic consumption.

With a combination of all three policies, it is possible to slow the rate at which plastic consumption will rise－a growth of 1.25 times over the 2019 figure instead of 1.73－but still nowhere near the goal of bending the consumption growth curve downward by 2050.

The study indicates that a ban on unnecessary SUP items yields a greater impact than either the EPR mandate or plastics tax restraints, possibly slowing the growth in plastic consumption by 14% by 2050. Yet, even with this ban in place, plastic consumption would be 1.48 times higher in 2050 compared with the 2019 baseline.

The EPR schemes, the study points out, will improve waste collection and increase recycling rates, averting plastic leakage into the environment. But it would barely dent the projected increase in plastic use.

Failure to agree to any preventive policy will result in plastic consumption across G20 countries hitting 451 million metric tons by 2050, 1.73-fold higher than the 2019 level of 261 million tons. The G20 economies account for almost half of the world total plastic consumption.

Mr. Charles Goddard, editorial director of Economist Impact, observed: "Negotiators of the UN plastics treaty must maintain the highest levels of ambition possible when entering the next round of negotiations, and industry needs to play a constructive, not obstructive, role in reaching a deal."

So far, he said, commitments by industry, retailers and brands to reduce plastic waste are short on detail and have failed to materialize, adding: “We have to slow the soaring production of single-use plastic. Only a bold suite of legally-binding policies will result in plastic consumption peaking by mid-century."

For my part, I said: “Back to Blue’s research is a timely call for urgent, ambitious solutions to the plastic crisis. Plastic pollution extends beyond all borders, impacting the health of the ocean and natural environment. It will take global coordination to address the scope and scale of this issue."

I sincerely hope that the report will be considered carefully by the UN negotiators and all other stakeholders, such as the petrochemical and consumer goods industries, environmental groups and consumers, given the scale of the plastic waste crisis.

This would prompt the UN negotiators to come up with a legally binding agreement which is bold and sweeping enough to bend the world’s plastic consumption curve in a timely manner.